NEW YORK,April 16,2025 -- According to global intelligence firmABI Research,the total install base for the U.S. mobile driver's license (mDL) market is expected to reach 143 million by 2030,up from 21.73 million in 2025. This growth is being driven by three key factors: the REAL ID-compliant requirement for domestic air travel,third-party digital wallet providers like Apple and Google offering their mDLs for free to U.S. states,and the growing trend of U.S. states adopting the EU model by creating an all-encompassing government credential digital wallet.

"Although a small and steady number of states are choosing to roll their mDL into an all-in-one state credential digital wallet,most states are deploying an mDL-only approach to their digital licenses. The only real difference is if the mDL can be used as a full alternative to a physical license or only for domestic air travel," explains Ash Robinson,Research Analyst at ABI Research.

ABI Research forecasts that by the end of 2030,40 U.S. states will have implemented mobile driver's licenses independently or through third-party digital wallet providers. The adoption of mDLs in the US typically progresses through three stages: First,mDLs are tested in pilot phases,often in small-scale trials such as in a large town or small city. Second,once deployed,mDLs are initially used primarily for domestic flights,allowing for widespread adoption while undergoing testing for any overlooked issues from the pilot phase. And third,mDLs are fully integrated as alternatives to physical licenses,accepted by law enforcement and for age verification purposes.

According to Robinson,"Mobile driver's licenses in the US will see a large rise in usage in 2030 compared to use in the present day,but they will not totally replace their physical counterparts as U.S. mDLs are derived in nature with a physical license being needed to act as the primary documentation for mDL activation. Currently,60% of the US driving population use a mDL."

Over the next 10 years,U.S. mDL innovators and implementers need to focus efforts and strategies across two key areas: creating a standardized ruleset for mobile driver's license regulation like the REAL ID scheme for physical licenses and,secondly,expanding use cases and functionality to achieve a multi-purpose singular government digital wallet.

These findings are from ABI Research's U.S. Mobile Driver's Licenses: Market Trends,Adoption Rates,and Challengesreport.This report is part of the company'sCitizen Digital IdentityResearch service,which includes research,data,and ABI Insights.

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